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San Diego Padres
4
0% — our call
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks
10
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityArizona Diamondbacks
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Diamondbacks in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

1234567894262
Padres · 3 H, 0 EDiamondbacks · 15 H, 0 E
100%
Diamondbacks win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Diamondbacks win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Jake Cronenworth flies out to left fielder Lars Nootbaar.
top 9Luis Campusano pops out to second baseman Ildemaro Vargas.
top 9Gage Workman doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Sung-Mun Song scores. Ty France scores. Jackson Merrill scores.410
top 9Jackson Merrill walks. Sung-Mun Song to 3rd. Ty France to 2nd.
top 9Ty France reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by pitcher Kevin Ginkel. Sung-Mun Song to 2nd.
top 9Sung-Mun Song walks.
top 9Gavin Sheets grounds out, second baseman Ildemaro Vargas to first baseman Tyler Locklear.
top 9Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.110

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Gage Workman 1-1, 3 RBI · Ty France 1-4
Arizona Diamondbacks
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Tim Tawa 3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Ryan Waldschmidt 3-4 · Tyler Locklear 2-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.