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San Diego Padres
5
100% — our call
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks
1
0% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityArizona Diamondbacks
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Diamondbacks in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 12 H, 0 EDiamondbacks · 8 H, 0 E
0%
Diamondbacks win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Diamondbacks win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Tim Tawa strikes out swinging.
bot 9Max Kepler singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.
bot 9Nolan Arenado strikes out swinging.
bot 9Lars Nootbaar flies out to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
top 9Jackson Merrill flies out sharply to right fielder Corbin Carroll.
top 9Ty France doubles (15) on a ground ball to left fielder Max Kepler.
top 9Manny Machado grounds out sharply, second baseman Ketel Marte to first baseman Tim Tawa.
top 9Luis Rengifo singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Luis Rengifo 3-5 · Jackson Merrill 2-5, 1 RBI · Ty France 2-4, 1 RBI
Arizona Diamondbacks
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Gabriel Moreno 3-4, 1 RBI · Tim Tawa 1-4 · Lars Nootbaar 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.