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San Diego Padres
9
100% — our call
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks
4
0% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityArizona Diamondbacks
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Diamondbacks in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 16 H, 0 EDiamondbacks · 6 H, 1 E
0%
Diamondbacks win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Diamondbacks win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Tim Tawa grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Ty France.
bot 9Lars Nootbaar grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Ty France.
bot 9Nolan Arenado pops out to second baseman Jake Cronenworth.
top 9Gage Workman grounds into a double play, second baseman Ketel Marte to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Tim Tawa. Jase Bowen out at 2nd. Gage Workman out at 1st.
top 9Jase Bowen reaches on a fielder's choice out, third baseman Nolan Arenado to catcher James McCann to third baseman Nolan Arenado to pitcher Jonathan Loáisiga. Freddy Fermin out at home. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.
top 9Jake Cronenworth singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Sung-Mun Song scores. Freddy Fermin to 3rd.94
top 9Freddy Fermin singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Sung-Mun Song to 2nd.
top 9Sung-Mun Song walks.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Jackson Merrill 3-5, 2 RBI · Manny Machado 3-5, 4 RBI · Jake Cronenworth 3-5, 1 RBI
Arizona Diamondbacks
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Nolan Arenado 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · James McCann 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Geraldo Perdomo 2-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.