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New York Mets
3
100% — our call
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks
1
0% — our call
New York Metsgame flow — win probabilityArizona Diamondbacks
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Diamondbacks in control. Red fill: Mets. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mets · 5 H, 0 EDiamondbacks · 5 H, 0 E
0%
Diamondbacks win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Diamondbacks win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 10Ildemaro Vargas strikes out swinging.
bot 10Geraldo Perdomo pops out to second baseman Marcus Semien.
top 10Luis Torrens grounds out, third baseman Nolan Arenado to first baseman Jose Fernandez.
top 10Francisco Alvarez reaches on a fielder's choice out, pitcher Jonathan Loáisiga to catcher Gabriel Moreno. Carson Benge out at home. Marcus Semien to 3rd.
top 10MJ Melendez strikes out swinging.
top 10Marcus Semien singles on a bunt ground ball to third baseman Nolan Arenado. Carson Benge to 3rd.
top 10Carson Benge hits a ground-rule double (5) on a line drive to left-center field. Vidal Bruján scores.31
top 10Mark Vientos doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Brett Baty scores.21

Context the model prices

New York Mets
7 on the injured list · bullpen threw 34 batters faced over the last two days
Mark Vientos 2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Francisco Alvarez 1-4 · Carson Benge 1-3, 1 RBI
Arizona Diamondbacks
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 23 batters faced over the last two days
Nolan Arenado 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Ryan Waldschmidt 1-1 · Ildemaro Vargas 1-5

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.