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San Diego Padres
6
100% — our call
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks
4
0% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityArizona Diamondbacks
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Diamondbacks in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 6 H, 1 EDiamondbacks · 7 H, 3 E
0%
Diamondbacks win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Diamondbacks win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Ketel Marte grounds out, first baseman Ty France to pitcher Mason Miller.
bot 9Alek Thomas flies out to left fielder Ramón Laureano.
top 9Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Ramón Laureano out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Corbin Carroll to shortstop Ildemaro Vargas.
top 9Ramón Laureano walks.
top 9Jake Cronenworth strikes out swinging.
top 9Freddy Fermin reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Ildemaro Vargas.
top 9Ty France homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.64
bot 8Jose Fernandez grounds into a force out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to second baseman Jake Cronenworth. Nolan Arenado out at 2nd.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
7 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 16 batters faced over the last two days
Ty France 2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI · Freddy Fermin 1-3, 1 RBI · Gavin Sheets 1-4, 2 RBI
Arizona Diamondbacks
6 on the injured list · bullpen threw 17 batters faced over the last two days
Alek Thomas 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Nolan Arenado 2-4 · Jose Fernandez 2-4, 2 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.