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San Diego Padres
1
0% — our call
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks
5
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityArizona Diamondbacks
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Diamondbacks in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

123456789132
Padres · 6 H, 1 EDiamondbacks · 9 H, 1 E
100%
Diamondbacks win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Diamondbacks win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Luis Rengifo grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas.
top 9Jackson Merrill pops out to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo.
top 9Ty France flies out to right fielder Corbin Carroll.
bot 8Corbin Carroll grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Ty France.
bot 8Jorge Barrosa out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Tim Tawa scores. James McCann to 3rd.15
bot 8James McCann doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Luis Rengifo. Nolan Arenado scores. Tim Tawa to 3rd.14
bot 8Tim Tawa singles on a ground ball to shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Nolan Arenado to 3rd.
bot 8Adrian Del Castillo out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Wandy Peralta to first baseman Ty France. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Luis Campusano 2-3 · Luis Rengifo 1-4 · Jackson Merrill 1-4
Arizona Diamondbacks
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Tim Tawa 3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Geraldo Perdomo 2-3 · James McCann 2-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.