A Statball Long Read · Trends
The Three True Outcomes
A home run, a walk, or a strikeout now ends more than a third of all plate appearances. In 1908 it was about one in six. This is the whole climb, out of the box scores, with the three causes charted one at a time.
By Jude Wilson
In 1908, at the dead-ball era’s deepest point, a batter stepping in could expect one thing above all: contact. Roughly one plate appearance in six ended without a ball in play. Pitchers threw to contact, hitters slapped and bunted, and the defense was always, always involved.
A century later that share has more than doubled. The home run, the walk, and the strikeout get called the three true outcomes because they're the three results the seven fielders behind the pitcher can do nothing about. No single number separates modern baseball from the old game more cleanly.
A third of the game, untouched
The share of plate appearances ending in a home run, walk, or strikeout — with no fielder involved — since 1901. Hover to read a season, or click to pin it.
From 16.04% in 1908 to a peak of 35.73% in 2019.
Scrub through the seasons
Drag either handle to see how a single plate appearance breaks down in any two seasons — and watch the gray “ball in play” slice shrink as the game modernizes.
Every plate appearance ends one of four ways. Drag either season to watch the ball leave the field of play: in 1908, 84% of trips to the plate put the ball in play; by 2025 it was 66%.
The strikeout explosion
The engine of it all is the strikeout. Pitchers throw harder than ever, bullpens are stocked with fresh arms, and hitters have accepted the whiff as the cost of swinging for the fences. Combined strikeouts per game have gone from 6.568 in 1908 to 17.63 at the 2019 peak — nearly triple. Around 2018, for the first time in history, a full season saw more strikeouts than hits.
The vanishing bunt
While strikeouts climbed, the sacrifice bunt — the signature small-ball play of the dead-ball era — fell off a cliff. Analytics made the case plainly: giving away an out to move a runner rarely pays. Sacrifice hits per game have collapsed from 2.627 in 1908 to just 0.23 in 2025 — a drop of more than 90%. Baseball has, essentially, stopped bunting.
The bullpen takeover
None of this happens without a revolution on the mound. In 1908, a game used 2.796 pitchers between the two teams — starters were expected to finish what they began. Today it takes 8.588: a starter, then a parade of specialists throwing max effort for an inning apiece. More fresh arms means more velocity, and more velocity means more strikeouts — the loop that built the modern game.
The three, together
Strikeouts, walks, and home runs per game since 1901. The strikeout line is the one that ran away.
1908 vs. today
- True-outcome share
- 16.04%
- Strikeouts / game
- 6.6
- Home runs / game
- 0.21
- Bunts / game
- 2.63
- Pitchers / game
- 2.8
- True-outcome share
- 34.34%
- Strikeouts / game
- 16.7
- Home runs / game
- 2.33
- Bunts / game
- 0.23
- Pitchers / game
- 8.6
Explore every trend
Switch between the numbers behind the story. Hover to read a season; click to pin one.
Whether this is the game at its most efficient or its least watchable is the great argument of modern baseball — and it’s exactly why the 2023 rules changes leaned so hard against it. But the trend is unmistakable, and it’s written into every box score of the last hundred years.
Source · Retrosheet game logs, 1901–2025 · 233,634 games all-time